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In a wild-card recreation Saturday evening at 8 ET, the battered Miami Dolphins (11-6) will play on the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11-6) in what is anticipated to be one of the coldest games in NFL history. With a laundry checklist of accidents and an underwhelming end to the common season, the Dolphins — a 4.5-point underdog, per FanDuel as of Thursday — appear to have slim hopes of successful. Playoff historical past, nevertheless, suggests there’s room for optimism.
The 5 coldest video games in NFL playoff historical past are as follows: Cowboys-Packers (1967), Chargers-Bengals (1981-82), Seahawks-Vikings (2015-16), Giants-Packers (2007-08) and Raiders-Payments (1993-94). Based mostly on the stats and storylines from these video games, listed here are causes to be optimistic and pessimistic about Miami’s probabilities:
Optimist
Operating the ball might be key: Among the many 5 coldest matchups in league historical past, the higher-ranked speeding offense between groups prevailed in all however one among them, with the “Freezer Bowl” being the lone exception. Even so, operating the ball successfully was nonetheless a significant factor in that recreation, with the victorious Bengals outrushing the Chargers 143 yards to 128. This could bode nicely for the Dolphins, contemplating they completed sixth in speeding yards and first in touchdowns speeding. The Chiefs, in the meantime, ranked nineteenth and twenty sixth in these respective classes.
The percentages of an in depth recreation are larger than not: Though Miami is severely undermanned, our five-game pattern dimension suggests it could preserve issues aggressive in opposition to the defending Tremendous Bowl champion Chiefs. 4 of the 5 coldest playoff video games of all time had been determined by one rating, with the Chargers-Bengals AFC Championship Recreation standing out as soon as once more, as Cincinnati received convincingly 27-7. It is also price noting that Miami’s Week 9 loss to Kansas Metropolis in Germany ended with a rating of 21-14.
A standard development amongst successful defenses: Each group that received its cold-weather playoff matchup ranked inside the highest 10 in both yardage or factors allowed throughout that exact season. The Dolphins’ late-season skid undermined their protection’s scoring rating, however the group nonetheless managed to complete tenth in yards per recreation allowed (318.3). Clearly, since Miami’s unit is so banged up, it most likely will not dwell as much as its season rating, but it surely nonetheless turned in a commendable efficiency in its 21-14 Week 18 loss to the high-powered Payments.
Highway groups are on a heater: The Dolphins are a distinct group once they aren’t enjoying at Exhausting Rock Stadium, posting a mediocre 4-4 report on the highway this season and a 7-10 report in away video games general underneath HC Mike McDaniel. This could be a trigger for concern, however getting into a hostile setting did not matter for the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks, the winners of the 2 most up-to-date video games we’re utilizing for our comparability.
Pessimist
House groups have had the sting: Whereas the guests received the 2 most up-to-date frigid playoff video games, having home-field benefit has traditionally given groups the higher hand, with the 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 1993 Payments every dealing with enterprise at house. Even supposing the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks received on the highway, they weren’t straightforward victories. New York wanted additional time and a Brett Favre interception earlier than making the successful subject aim. In the meantime, the Seahawks survived in opposition to the Vikings because of a missed potential go-head 27-yard chip shot by Blair Walsh with simply seconds remaining.
No group pulled out a win after shedding the earlier recreation: Miami’s Week 18 loss to the Payments could be a cautionary signal, given that each group that received the present 5 coldest video games in playoff historical past got here into the matchup off a win. After all, for 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 2007 Giants, there was no different approach for this to be the case since their wins passed off within the second spherical of the playoffs or later. Nonetheless, wins by the 1993 Payments and 2015 Seahawks got here of their first playoff recreation throughout these seasons after they dominated of their regular-season finales. Seattle throttled the Arizona Cardinals 36-6, and Buffalo crushed the Indianapolis Colts 30-10.
The Dolphins have problem adapting to the chilly: Based mostly on each group title and placement, it is not stunning Miami struggles with chilly climate, however its latest report in poor climates suggests it would as nicely already begin planning for the offseason. Based on Stathead, the Dolphins have not received a single one among their final 10 video games when the temperature was under 40 levels, with their final win underneath such circumstances coming in 2016. In the meantime, the Chiefs are 9-1 of their previous 10 house video games when the temperature was under 40 levels, together with 4-0 within the postseason, per CBS Sports.
Ultimately, it is all about having the higher protection: Regardless that every winner’s protection ranked inside the highest 12 in scoring and yardage, a few of the losers had stout models of their very own. However in the end, the extra gifted group got here out on high. Each victor outranked the loser in factors or yards allowed getting into their respective conferences, with the 1967 Packers, 1993 Bengals and 2015 Seahawks topping their opponents in each departments. This might show to be one other benefit for the Chiefs, whose protection ranks second in factors (294) and yards (4,926) allowed.
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